Site index
Sitemap.
Every page on unspurious, in one place — 28 illusions, 6 interactive tools, the blog, and the reference pages.
The library
Statistical illusions, grouped by the mechanism that produces them.
Aggregation illusions
Selection illusions
Sampling illusions
Inference illusions
Measurement illusions
Presentation illusions
Interactive tools
Each runs entirely in your browser, on real statistics.
- The Benford Detector Paste any numbers and test them against Benford's Law.
- The P-Hacking Sandbox A playable Texas sharpshooter — find significance in pure noise.
- The Base-Rate Explorer A confusion-matrix sandbox: rarity, accuracy, and what a positive is worth.
- Lie With This Chart Drag a y-axis off zero and watch an honest number mislead.
- The Spurious Correlation Machine Generate two unrelated datasets and watch them correlate anyway.
- The Simpson's Machine Slide a lurking variable until every subgroup's trend reverses.
The blog
- The blog — index
- It takes two: when the real cause is a combination
- Five statistical paradoxes that change how you read the news
- Simpson's paradox in the wild: three examples that fooled the experts
- What a positive test result actually means
- Survivorship bias: the evidence is in the graveyard
- Why every backtest works — survivorship bias in the markets
- Does bacon really cause cancer? The processed-meat headlines, decoded
Reference
- Why correlation is not causation A primer on the four reasons a correlation isn't proof of cause, with a freely reusable diagram of the lurking-variable case.
Reference & information
A machine-readable version for search engines lives at sitemap.xml.