The blog
Notes from the library.
Essays, case studies and practical guides on the statistical illusions that turn correct numbers into confident mistakes — every post drawn out in figures.
Why every backtest works
Every fund track record beats the market and every backtest is a winner — because the losers were deleted. Survivorship bias in fund databases, stock indices and strategy backtests.
Read →Bacon, cancer, and the one number nobody printed
The 2025 "warnings on bacon" story, decoded: how an 18% relative risk — one extra case per 100 lifelong daily eaters — became "as deadly as smoking."
Read →Does bacon really cause cancer?
How "processed meat causes cancer" became "bacon is as deadly as smoking" — hazard vs. risk, and the missing baseline.
Read →Survivorship bias: the evidence is in the graveyard
Wald's bombers, fund graveyards, the falling-cats study and founder folklore — how filters write datasets.
Read →Five statistical paradoxes that change how you read the news
Honest numbers, dishonest conclusions — and the five questions that catch them. With five figures.
Read →Simpson's paradox in the wild: three examples that fooled the experts
Berkeley admissions, COVID vaccine tables and a famous baseball season — each reversal drawn out in full.
Read →What a positive test result actually means
Your test is 90% accurate and came back positive. The honest answer is about 9% — counted out in pictures.
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